We Will Withdraw, Like It or Not

The Times has published a story that reports that American and British troops will leave Iraq soon after the new government is sworn in. The story says that will be as early as March and that the number of American troops may fall below 100,000 "in the coming months." The sources seem to be both American and British.

This is one more sign that the apparent hard-line against withdrawal taken by President Bush and others is softer than it appears. Political reality is pushing us toward withdrawal.

Two other points of the article are worth noting as they point to dangers that withdrawal may bring. The first is the protestation of Iraqi authorities that premature withdrawal may, first, increase the risk of intervention by Iraq's neighbors (primarily Iran and Turkey, though those two countries are not named) and, second, "encourage the rise of militias, leading to sectarian strife and the settling of old scores."

The second point worth noting is a poll the BBC conducted in Iraq. Only 10 percent of those responding thought that American withdrawal should have a high priority for the new government. Indeed, the Times concludes: "The public has doubts about the ability of the Iraqi security forces, in particular the police, which is riddled with militia, and the army, which lacks equipment, training and leadership." Others have different opinions about the results of the poll.

The poll results do show the respondents to be optimistic about the future. Moreover, when asked about what would be the best thing that could happen to Iraq in the next year, less than 6 percent said it would be with withdrawal of American troops. Security was named by a third and peace and stability were named by another fifth. A question about priorities also showed that an increase in security ranked far higher than the removal of foreign troops. In answer to a question about when the coalition forces should leave Iraq, only a quarter said they should leave now. More than that said they should leave when stability is restored. On the other hand, only an infinitesimal number are eager for American troops to stay and well more than half oppose the presence of coalition forces.

A successful withdrawal is predicated on the Iraqi forces improving, becoming much better than they currently appear. The poll and the concerns of the Iraqi authorities underline the dangers of leaving too quickly. While national feeling remains strong, there may be an important role for American troops until Iraqis feel secure.

A question few seem to ask is how long and in what strength the United States should remain in Iraq. An allied question is whether the Iraqi public can accept a large, extended deployment. The BBC poll suggests that they may. If we want a secure, peaceful Iraq, we may have to. Those who cite the model of Japan and Germany after World War II should remember that we only left Japan after 5 years (and retained extensive basing rights) and that we still remain in Germany.