23 February 2006

Civil War?

The destruction of the Golden Mosque in Samarra has brought Iraq to the brink of the civil war that has been threatened since the collapse of Saddam's dictatorship released the bonds that had held the sectarian and ethnic divisions of the country in check. Make no mistake, this is an event that will have long-term consequences.

It has already strengthened the militias that provide the Shiites in particular, but the Kurds as well, with an armed force that at best dilutes the power of the Iraqi government. It may be that Shiite reprisals have, in their turn, strengthened the appeal of the domestic insurgents, allies of Zarqawi's terrorists, who are likely to have bombed the mosque. The Sunni party involved in the talks to form a new government has suspended the negotiations, demanding an apology from the Shia. This makes it even less likely than before than a non-sectarian, all-inclusive government will be formed.

Calls from both Sunni and Shiite leaders for calm are encouraging. But they have come with accusations from all sides that the United States bears responsibility for the bombing and from the Sunnis that Shiite leaders are doing too little to minimize retaliation. Moreover, according to The Washington Post, Sistani issued a statement that "If its security institutions are unable to provide the necessary security, the faithful are able to do that by the will and blessings of God."

The longer the openly sectarian violence continues, the less likely it will be that a united, peaceful Iraq can emerge from the ashes left by our destruction of Saddam's regime. What do we do then? What can we do now to try to undo the harm that has been done?

Withdrawal is the simple answer, of course. But we still have a role that we can play if Iraq does not swirl out of control. Our forces are not insubstantial, after all, and we have immense resources that we can draw on to improve the situation. We still have a responsibility to do what we can.