Not yet Soviet, but....

Russia's proposal to limit the number of election observers allowed in for the legislative elections is one more sign that Russia's flirtation with democracy is coming to an end. Dictatorship has become much more attractive.
This is not the first such sign, of course. It has been evident that Putin will continue to rule after his current term ends. How he will do so is not clear. One writer suggested that he will rule through his party, United Russia, much as the leaders of the Communist Party did in Soviet times. The more recent suggestion that Putin might serve as prime minister seems more likely. But the current calls for a change in the constitution to allow him to serve another term are, to say the least, most interesting, They do seem unlikely to have been made without prompting, or at least encouragement.

It does all seem so Soviet. But what is most discouraging about the current environment is the retreat from openness. Rather, the headlong march into obscurity. The proposal to limit observers is, again, one more sign. The accompanying noise that "Russia does not need to invite an army of observers, because the Russian electoral system is one of the most advanced in the world," resembling, as it does, the Soviet tone of self-righteous outrage, is all too familiar. Samokritika--self-criticism--may be a Soviet concept, but it never had a place in Russian/Soviet relations with the outside world. It was always as if the Soviets were above criticism, except by hypocrites. Like the United States, for example, with the irregularities about the 2000 election that they are not afraid to trumpet.

So, is the Soviet Union returning? Not quite. The dictatorship now being formed, brutal as it is, is not Soviet in nature. For one, its motivation is nationalist, not ideological. That is both a strength and a weakness. For another, it seeks less than total control of the economy--extensive control, particularly of what it regards as key sectors--but not total control.

Most important, perhaps, the Russian economy is full of weakness. It depends strongly on oil: as oil goes, it goes. There are worse reeds for an economy to lean on. But when the rest of the world finds alternatives to Russian oil, the Russian economy may well tank. Moreover, demographics dictate that Russian power will shrink over the next few decades. Among major powers. Japan does worse, but few if any other countries.

So where will that leave us? With a dictatorship stronger--politically--at home, but weaker in the world and less able to deliver the goods at home. Not a pleasant prospect.