Lasting Settlement in Lebanon?

Secretary Rice is trying to get what she calls a lasting settlement in Lebanon. Let us hope she succeeds. But the settlement she describes is too narrow to be lasting.

The settlement she is aiming for would place an "international Stabilization Force" on the border between Lebanon and Israel. It would allow the Lebanese government to extend its authority to that border, prohibit "armed groups," i.e., Hezbollah, and foreign forces, i.e., Syrian troops, where the Stabilization Force is deployed, and enforce an embargo against weapons delivered anyone other than the Lebanese government or the international force. The international force would also help the Lebanese patrol the border with Syria.

This reflects the decision not to talk to those we oppose. In her statement Rice repeatedly says that the "Lebanon, Israel, and the international community agree..." on the points she makes. The entire statement is clearly aimed at Hezbollah and Syria. There are no carrots that might induce them to abide by it; the expectation seems to be that the international force would be a deterrent strong enough to prevent any challenge.

But it cannot be. Hezbollah is proving itself strong as an armed force; it is gaining political strength as the only Arab force that has been effective against Israel. Should Israel succeed in diminishing Hezbollah's military force, Hezbollah will strive to reconstitute it. Syria and Iran will help with the blessing, open or covert, of mush of the rest of the Arab world. The war will continue at some later time.

Moreover, there is little in the proposed settlement to help the Lebanese government. Support is declared for it; vague promises of help from the international force are given. But nowhere is there an assurance of concrete support that will help this weak state become strong. Indeed, the actions of both Israel and Hezbollah have weakened it, and it is quite possible that the presence of an international force will merely underline how weak the government is.

Let us hope that this minimal settlement can be reached. Do not attach high hopes to it. A lasting settlement will require harder work than the United States is currently prepared to do. It will require that all the actors be engaged, including those we would like to simply disappear.